Alpecin-Deceuninck came ready to shape the race from the start. They are not waiting for climbing stages or hoping for lucky breaks. They are taking control first and with purpose. Sports betting websites have likely already noticed— Alpecin-Deceuninck is guiding the race in the first week.
Stage 1? Jasper Philipsen took the win. It was a fast and clean sprint. He stayed out of trouble, avoided tacky cross-wind chaos, nailed the positioning, and finished with pure speed. Simple as that.
Stage 2? Mathieu van der Poel showed up. On a short uphill finish, he beat the big names- Pogačar, Vingegaard, the usual suspects. He went hard precisely when needed, held it, and crossed first. Now he’s in yellow.
Success doesn’t stem from just one lucky opportunity. The team has been sharp, totally locked in, and dialed. Winning two different types of stages with two different riders in the first two days is no small feat.
Stage Wins Set the Tone
Philipsen’s completion of the sprint to the finish may appear effortless from the outside, but it took extreme effort. There was a significant split midway through caused by crosswinds, which impacted several general classification (GC) contenders. Alpecin kept their trains organized and held their leaders in the front. They entered the final five kilometers in control of the race. The leadout activated as planned, giving an unhindered route to Philipsen to finish the race.
Stage 2 brought an entire shift around. This time it featured a short mid-stage punchy climb. It was neither a full-fledged sprint nor a miniature version of a mountain. Van der Poel had an opportunity, so he took it. He did not look back. He has now claimed the yellow jersey after executing a superb tactical breakaway. Philipsen has Green.
Winning a single stage is challenging. Alpecin was successful in two. Remarkably, they have claimed both the coveted leader’s jerseys by Day 3 of the Tour.
The Team Behind It Works
Everybody recognizes van der Poel and Philipsen. However, none of this happens without the rest of the team doing their jobs. Vermeersch, Dillier, and Meurisse are managing leadouts, controlling breakaways, and taking care of the wind splits while keeping the frontrunners fresh. They have been doing exactly what’s required—no surplus movements, no energy wastage.
Alpecin was ready at the start of stage 1 when the crosswinds split the race. They stayed towards the front and avoided the carnage. During stage 2, they maintained a relaxed pace until the final climb, where they allowed van der Poel to take charge.
Everything continues to look tidy without chaos; such is a rare occurrence this early into the season.
Yellow Jersey Changes the Game
Van Der Poel in yellow doesn’t mean he will keep it for two weeks, but it does offer some incentive. This does, however, give them the power to control things. Temp set. Peloton Control. Decide when to chase and when to take a break. That degree of control, even if only for a limited time, is of significant worth.
Now, UAE and Visma have to make the decision to burn energy early or Alpecin run the show. Hesitate and Alpecin get even more opportunities, more points, and potentially stage wins.
From a betting angle, everything is already shifting. Riders once priced at 10/1 to win a stage are starting to tank. Sports betting markets are now changing. Live betting odds are responding instantly to the team finishing. And it makes sense, they should.
Looks to me that Alpecin is the sharpest team out there right now.
What the Rivals Are Missing
As for the three main contenders who are likely to win —Pogačar, Vingegaard, Evenepoel— they haven’t shown us anything yet. Evenemoel’s already behind. Pogačar and Vingegaard were with the group on stage 2, but both were trying to play it safe.
That’s a good strategy, but it is too early to be taking big risks. However, Alpecin’s strategy stands out. While the contenders are restrained, Alpecin is on the attack with their full throttle approach to certain selected stages. There is no other way to put it: they are maximizing their opportunities. It looks like they have no chance of winning the overall Tour, but they can dominate the first week, which is how you bank additional stages, jerseys, and time bonuses.
Flat Doesn’t Mean Easy
The next few stages may seem flat, but don’t get too comfortable. Distance remains an issue, and wind can become a factor. Positioning still matters. GC teams still risk getting burned if they relax too much. And now that Philipsen has a stage win, all the sprinters will be gunning for stage wins.
Alpecin will be there and they’re still hungry. With more sprint wins up for grabs, we can expect a hungry Philipsen. Van der Poel might try to claim an intermediate or bonus sprint to keep the yellow jersey for a longer period, which affords them options. Other teams? Mostly reacting right now.
And once again, this affects betting. On the contrary, flat stages may seem boring on paper, but should the wind find its way in, things can explode. That shifts everything. The odds can shift live. Time can be lost in mere minutes by favorites, so pay attention to positioning as reliance on sprinting will backfire.
Jersey Situation: Alpecin Dominance
Here’s where things stand after two stages:
- Yellow (Overall) – Van der Poel
- Green (Points) – Philipsen
- White (Young Rider) – Still unclear
- Polka Dot (Climber) – No action yet
Van der Poel probably won’t keep yellow into the mountains. But right now, they’re holding the jerseys that matter. That gives them media attention, more motivation, and more reason to stay aggressive.
Philipsen’s got a real shot at green if he stays upright. He’s the fastest sprinter in the race and has the best leadout. Not much else to say.
Betting Angles: What to Watch
This is where the smart bettors are paying attention. Alpecin’s start changes the entire picture.
Stage wins? They’ve shown they can win on flat and rolling terrain. That gives them two or three more real chances in week one alone.
Green jersey? Philipsen is now the clear favorite. It’s not a lock—but it’s close.
Van der Poel? He’s worth watching in breakaways or bonus second opportunities. He’s not going to win the GC, but he might grab one more win before the mountains come.
And keep an eye on wind. Crosswinds create chaos. Look for teams that can handle it. Right now, Alpecin is one of the best. When the wind picks up, expect action—and don’t wait too long to place bets. Odds move fast when splits happen.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Can van der Poel hold the yellow jersey through the first week?
A: Maybe. Depends on the wind and stage profiles. But once the mountains hit, he’ll likely lose it.
Q: How many more stages can Philipsen win?
A: He’s the top sprinter, so 2–3 more stage wins are possible if he stays healthy.
Q: Is it worth betting early on green jersey now?
A: The value is lower now, but if you still believe in Philipsen, locking it in now might be your last shot at decent odds.
Q: What other teams could still shake things up?
A: UAE and Visma. They haven’t shown much yet, but once the mountains start, expect both to go all-in on GC.
Q: What are the sports betting terminologies?
A: Sports betting terms like “moneyline” (betting on a winner), “parlay” (multiple bets combined), “spread” (point difference), “juice” (book’s cut), and “live betting” (placing bets during the event) are common in sports betting.
Control Now, Worry Later
Alpecin‑Deceuninck doesn’t need to win the Tour to control it. And right now, they do. They’ve won two stages. They wear yellow and green. Their team is riding with purpose. Everyone else? Trying to adjust.
They’ll lose yellow eventually. Everyone knows that. But they’ve already made their mark—and they’re not done. More sprint wins are coming. Maybe one or two more explosive efforts from Van der Poel. And they’re going to make life harder for the GC favorites until the race hits the high mountains.
From a betting perspective, this is where you pay attention. Don’t wait until Philipsen’s odds get too short. Don’t ignore Van der Poel in the next punchy finish. And don’t write off wind stages—they can decide more than mountains this early in the Tour.
Right now, Alpecin‑Deceuninck owns the first week. Everyone else is trying to catch up.